Q4 Outlook for Global Stock and Bond Markets

Outlook for Global Stock Markets: Q4 2025

As we move into the final quarter of 2025, investors are positioning for a potentially pivotal period. With the Federal Reserve and other central banks now firmly in an easing cycle, monetary conditions are more supportive than at any point in recent years. However, slowing global growth, lingering geopolitical risks, and elevated valuations continue to shape a cautious investment landscape.

Developed Markets: Easing Tensions, Growth Questions

United States :

U.S. equities enter Q4 following the Fed’s first rate cut in late Q3. While technology stocks remain market leaders, earnings growth is beginning to normalize. Investors are watching closely for signs of rotation into cyclical sectors if economic data shows resilience. Valuations remain elevated, particularly in large-cap growth, making the market sensitive to any earnings disappointments or macro shocks.

Europe :

The ECB has continued to ease policy, supporting liquidity and credit conditions. However, political instability in France and Eastern Europe weighs on sentiment. Defensive sectors and exporters stand to benefit from a weaker euro and easier financial conditions, but overall growth remains uneven across the continent.

Japan :

Japanese equities maintain support from corporate reforms and ongoing foreign inflows. The BoJ remains cautious, signaling gradual policy normalization as inflationary pressures persist. A weaker yen continues to aid exporters, though tighter monetary policy later in Q4 cannot be ruled out.

Overall, developed markets could deliver modest gains in Q4, supported by monetary easing, but investors must remain selective given valuation risks and slowing growth momentum.

Emerging Markets: Opportunities Amid Mixed Signals

China :

Despite continued stimulus, China’s recovery remains uneven. Industrial production and consumer spending show tentative signs of improvement, but weakness in the property sector persists. Volatility is likely to remain high, with selective opportunities in policy-supported industries. However, the All China stock markets have fared well over one and 3 years for those that were prepared to invest so it is certainly possible that from these fairly low levels that the markets might start to attract International Investors once more.

India :

India continues to stand out as one of the strongest growth stories globally. Robust domestic demand, ongoing reforms, and stable capital inflows underpin market confidence. Indian equities are expected to remain a preferred destination for EM investors in Q4.

Latin America & Southeast Asia :

Commodity-driven markets like Brazil and Indonesia benefit from stabilizing global demand and a weaker U.S. dollar. Fed rate cuts are improving conditions for EM currencies and fixed income, though political noise—particularly in Brazil—remains a limiting factor.

Global Emerging Markets :

Overall, emerging markets may outperform developed peers on a relative basis in Q4, particularly if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. However, geopolitical tensions in Asia and ongoing uncertainties around China’s recovery remain key risks. Having said that we see many Institutional Investors returning to Invest in Global EM funds, but the key is to find the right fund for the current economic climate

Global Equity Markets- Conclusion :

Global equity markets approach Q4 with cautious optimism, supported by easier monetary policy and selective growth opportunities. A diversified and defensive tilt remains advisable, with a focus on India, select EMs, and resilient sectors in developed markets.

Fixed Income Market Outlook – Q4 2025

Global fixed income markets enter Q4 with central banks firmly in easing mode. This has improved the outlook for duration, with long-dated government bonds in particular positioned for stronger total returns. However, credit markets remain vulnerable to a potential slowdown in global growth.

United States :

Following the Fed’s first rate cut in Q3, investors expect additional easing into 2026. Intermediate and long-duration Treasuries remain attractive, while investment-grade corporate bonds offer solid carry. High-yield credit could face pressure if growth slows materially, requiring selective exposure.

Switzerland :

The Swiss National Bank continues to provide one of the most dovish stances globally. Swiss government and corporate bonds remain low-yielding but provide safe-haven appeal and currency diversification. Return potential is modest, but defensive qualities are valuable in uncertain markets.

Eurozone :

The ECB’s easing cycle supports sovereign bonds, particularly German Bunds. Southern European bonds such as Italy and Spain continue to offer attractive yields, though spread risks must be monitored. Corporate bonds remain sensitive to uneven growth but still provide carry opportunities.

Overall, Q4 offers attractive opportunities for investors extending duration. High-quality sovereign bonds remain central to portfolio resilience, while selective corporate credit exposure can enhance income. Diversification across geographies and maturities remains key.

Developments in Crypto and Alternatives

Investor appetite for alternatives continues to expand as traditional yields moderate. Crypto-related investment solutions, such as those offered by Laser Digital Asset Management (a Nomura subsidiary), are gaining attention for their ability to provide innovative, low-volatility return streams. These solutions may play a growing role in diversified portfolios during Q4.

Precious Metals Outlook – Q4 2025

Gold and silver enter Q4 2025 with renewed investor interest, driven by a combination of falling global interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and ongoing demand for portfolio diversification.

Gold prices remain supported by the Fed’s transition into an easing cycle, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Safe-haven demand is also being bolstered by political and economic uncertainties across both developed and emerging markets. Central bank purchases continue to provide a steady tailwind.

Silver, while benefiting from many of the same safe-haven drivers as gold, is also tied to industrial demand, particularly in solar and electronics. With global growth moderating but not collapsing, silver retains upside potential as both a defensive and cyclical asset.

Overall, precious metals are well positioned to serve as both a hedge and a tactical growth allocation during Q4. Gold remains the cornerstone for risk management, while silver provides additional leverage to global industrial activity.

Regulatory Information

Anglo-Swiss Advisors' managing partners are individually registered as client advisors in the ARIF Client Advisor Register pursuant to the Swiss Financial Services Act (FinSA). ARIF is a self-regulatory organization recognized by FINMA. 

The Company's services are exclusively available to qualified investors within the meaning of the Swiss Financial Services Act (FinSA).

Disclaimer

The information contained in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to engage in any specific investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.